Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used building block for a large variety of off-policy estimation and learning algorithms. However, empirical and theoretical studies have progressively shown that vanilla IS leads to poor estimations whenever the behavioral and target policies are too dissimilar. In this paper, we analyze the theoretical properties of the IS estimator by deriving a novel anticoncentration bound that formalizes the intuition behind its undesired behavior. Then, we propose a new class of IS transformations, based on the notion of power mean. To the best of our knowledge, the resulting estimator is the first to achieve, under certain conditions, two key properties: (i) it displays a subgaussian concentration rate; (ii) it preserves the differentiability in the target distribution. Finally, we provide numerical simulations on both synthetic examples and contextual bandits, in comparison with off-policy evaluation and learning baselines.

We consider the evaluation and training of a new policy for the evaluation data by using the historical data obtained from a different policy. The goal of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is to estimate the expected reward of a new policy over the evaluation data, and that of off-policy learning (OPL) is to find a new policy that maximizes the expected reward over the evaluation data. Although the standard OPE and OPL assume the same distribution of covariate between the historical and evaluation data, there often exists a problem of a covariate shift,i.e., the distribution of the covariate of the historical data is different from that of the evaluation data. In this paper, we derive the efficiency bound of OPE under a covariate shift. Then, we propose doubly robust and efficient estimators for OPE and OPL under a covariate shift by using an estimator of the density ratio between the distributions of the historical and evaluation data. We also discuss other possible estimators and compare their theoretical properties. Finally, we confirm the effectiveness of the proposed estimators through experiments.

Matching users based on mutual preferences is a fundamental aspect of services driven by reciprocal recommendations, such as job search and dating applications. Although A/B tests remain the gold standard for evaluating new policies in recommender systems for matching markets, it is costly and impractical for frequent policy updates. Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) thus plays a crucial role by enabling the evaluation of recommendation policies using only offline logged data naturally collected on the platform. However, unlike conventional recommendation settings, the large scale and bidirectional nature of user interactions in matching platforms introduce variance issues and exacerbate reward sparsity, making standard OPE methods unreliable. To address these challenges and facilitate effective offline evaluation, we propose novel OPE estimators, \textit{DiPS} and \textit{DPR}, specifically designed for matching markets. Our methods combine elements of the Direct Method (DM), Inverse Propensity Score (IPS), and Doubly Robust (DR) estimators while incorporating intermediate labels, such as initial engagement signals, to achieve better bias-variance control in matching markets. Theoretically, we derive the bias and variance of the proposed estimators and demonstrate their advantages over conventional methods. Furthermore, we show that these estimators can be seamlessly extended to offline policy learning methods for improving recommendation policies for making more matches. We empirically evaluate our methods through experiments on both synthetic data and A/B testing logs from a real job-matching platform. The empirical results highlight the superiority of our approach over existing methods in off-policy evaluation and learning tasks for a variety of configurations.

We study the novel problem of future off-policy evaluation (F-OPE) and learning (F-OPL) for estimating and optimizing the future value of policies in non-stationary environments, where distributions vary over time. In e-commerce recommendations, for instance, our goal is often to estimate and optimize the policy value for the upcoming month using data collected by an old policy in the previous month. A critical challenge is that data related to the future environment is not observed in the historical data. Existing methods assume stationarity or depend on restrictive reward-modeling assumptions, leading to significant bias. To address these limitations, we propose a novel estimator named \textit{\textbf{O}ff-\textbf{P}olicy Estimator for the \textbf{F}uture \textbf{V}alue (\textbf{\textit{OPFV}})}, designed for accurately estimating policy values at any future time point. The key feature of OPFV is its ability to leverage the useful structure within time-series data. While future data might not be present in the historical log, we can leverage, for example, seasonal, weekly, or holiday effects that are consistent in both the historical and future data. Our estimator is the first to exploit these time-related structures via a new type of importance weighting, enabling effective F-OPE. Theoretical analysis identifies the conditions under which OPFV becomes low-bias. In addition, we extend our estimator to develop a new policy-gradient method to proactively learn a good future policy using only historical data. Empirical results show that our methods substantially outperform existing methods in estimating and optimizing the future policy value under non-stationarity for various experimental setups.

Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used building block for a large variety of off-policy estimation and learning algorithms. However, empirical and theoretical studies have progressively shown that vanilla IS leads to poor estimations whenever the behavioral and target policies are too dissimilar. In this paper, we analyze the theoretical properties of the IS estimator by deriving a novel anticoncentration bound that formalizes the intuition behind its undesired behavior. Then, we propose a new class of IS transformations, based on the notion of power mean. To the best of our knowledge, the resulting estimator is the first to achieve, under certain conditions, two key properties: (i) it displays a subgaussian concentration rate; (ii) it preserves the differentiability in the target distribution. Finally, we provide numerical simulations on both synthetic examples and contextual bandits, in comparison with off-policy evaluation and learning baselines.

We consider the evaluation and training of a new policy for the evaluation data by using the historical data obtained from a different policy. The goal of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is to estimate the expected reward of a new policy over the evaluation data, and that of off-policy learning (OPL) is to find a new policy that maximizes the expected reward over the evaluation data. Although the standard OPE and OPL assume the same distribution of covariate between the historical and evaluation data, there often exists a problem of a covariate shift,i.e., the distribution of the covariate of the historical data is different from that of the evaluation data. In this paper, we derive the efficiency bound of OPE under a covariate shift. Then, we propose doubly robust and efficient estimators for OPE and OPL under a covariate shift by using an estimator of the density ratio between the distributions of the historical and evaluation data.

We explore off-policy evaluation and learning (OPE/L) in contextual combinatorial bandits (CCB), where a policy selects a subset in the action space. For example, it might choose a set of furniture pieces (a bed and a drawer) from available items (bed, drawer, chair, etc.) for interior design sales. This setting is widespread in fields such as recommender systems and healthcare, yet OPE/L of CCB remains unexplored in the relevant literature. Typical OPE/L methods such as regression and importance sampling can be applied to the CCB problem, however, they face significant challenges due to high bias or variance, exacerbated by the exponential growth in the number of available subsets. To address these challenges, we introduce a concept of factored action space, which allows us to decompose each subset into binary indicators. This formulation allows us to distinguish between the ''main effect'' derived from the main actions, and the ''residual effect'', originating from the supplemental actions, facilitating more effective OPE. Specifically, our estimator, called OPCB, leverages an importance sampling-based approach to unbiasedly estimate the main effect, while employing regression-based approach to deal with the residual effect with low variance. OPCB achieves substantial variance reduction compared to conventional importance sampling methods and bias reduction relative to regression methods under certain conditions, as illustrated in our theoretical analysis. Experiments demonstrate OPCB's superior performance over typical methods in both OPE and OPL.

We study Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) in contextual bandit settings with large action spaces. The benchmark estimators suffer from severe bias and variance tradeoffs. Parametric approaches suffer from bias due to difficulty specifying the correct model, whereas ones with importance weight suffer from variance. To overcome these limitations, Marginalized Inverse Propensity Scoring (MIPS) was proposed to mitigate the estimator's variance via embeddings of an action. Nevertheless, MIPS is unbiased under the no direct effect, which assumes that the action embedding completely mediates the effect of an action on a reward. To overcome the dependency on these unrealistic assumptions, we propose a Marginalized Doubly Robust (MDR) estimator. Theoretical analysis shows that the proposed estimator is unbiased under weaker assumptions than MIPS while reducing the variance against MIPS. The empirical experiment verifies the supremacy of MDR against existing estimators with large action spaces.

We consider the evaluation and training of a new policy for the evaluation data by using the historical data obtained from a different policy. The goal of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is to estimate the expected reward of a new policy over the evaluation data, and that of off-policy learning (OPL) is to find a new policy that maximizes the expected reward over the evaluation data. Although the standard OPE and OPL assume the same distribution of covariate between the historical and evaluation data, there often exists a problem of a covariate shift, i.e., the distribution of the covariate of the historical data is different from that of the evaluation data. In this paper, we derive the efficiency bound of OPE under a covariate shift. Then, we propose doubly robust and efficient estimators for OPE and OPL under a covariate shift by using an estimator of the density ratio between the distributions of the historical and evaluation data. We also discuss other possible estimators and compare their theoretical properties. Finally, we confirm the effectiveness of the proposed estimators through experiments.